Ripple’s native token, XRP, has found fresh impetus in July after the company confirmed its bid for a United States national banking charter and signalled the closing chapter of its long-running fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The dual narrative of deeper regulatory integration and diminished legal headwinds has pushed XRP back above sixty cents for the first time since early April, and a growing cohort of analysts now argues that seventy-five cents is the next major waypoint if buying pressure holds.
A Charter Application That Changes the Conversation
The immediate catalyst arrived on 2 July, when Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse revealed that the firm had formally applied to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a full national bank charter, alongside a separate request for a Federal Reserve master account. Reuters first broke the story, noting that a charter would allow Ripple to clear payments directly through the Fed rather than relying on correspondent banks, while also letting the company warehouse reserves for its dollar-backed stablecoin RLUSD at the central bank itself.
Market reaction was swift. Within forty-eight hours, XRP ripped from fifty-five cents to sixty-two, accompanied by the highest spot volume on Coinbase since January. Analysts at CoinDesk linked the surge directly to the charter news, arguing that bank-level oversight removes a key institutional objection to using XRP in cross-border settlement flows.
The SEC Cloud Finally Lifts
Regulatory optimism is not limited to the charter application. In late June, Ripple reached a fifty-million-dollar settlement with the SEC to end the agency’s remaining claims related to early institutional sales of XRP. Brave New Coin reported that the accord opens the door to ETF applications referencing XRP and clears the biggest legal overhang that has weighed on the token since 2020.
Cointelegraph research shows that lawsuit headlines shaved nearly sixty per cent off XRP’s market cap during 2021–2023. The final resolution offers what traders often call a “relief premium”, reinforcing the price each time sceptics test support levels.
Technical Map: Where Seventy-Five Cents Comes From
XRP’s weekly chart reveals a symmetrical triangle stretching back to November 2023. Last week’s close above sixty-one cents marked the first decisive candle outside that compression. Measured-move theory projects a follow-through objective in the seventy-four- to seventy-six-cent area, precisely the zone that contained XRP rallies in both September 2022 and April 2024.
On the daily timeframe, the twenty-day exponential moving average just crossed north of the fifty-day for the first time in three months, while the relative strength index hovers near sixty, a level that historically precedes extended momentum bursts in XRP bull phases.
A deeper support layer rests at fifty-five cents, where on-chain data provider Santiment flags the largest cluster of unspent transaction outputs since March. That bid wall coincides with the highest thirty-day whale accumulation count in a year, over eight hundred wallets holding at least ten million XRP added to balances during the charter-announcement week, according to Whale Alert.
On-Chain Health Snapshot
Exchange balances have continued to drop. Glassnode shows that only sixteen percent of the circulating XRP now sits on centralized venues, the lowest since 2018. Meanwhile, daily active addresses pushed above 1.4 million on 7 July, underscoring renewed transactional life as users tested Ripple’s institutional liquidity corridors that reopened after settlement news broke.
Perhaps most telling is the resurgence of small-balance wallets. Addresses holding between one thousand and ten thousand XRP rose by 2.3 percent in June, reversing an eighteen-month contraction. Historically, that cohort acts as a barometer for grassroots retail conviction.
Fundamental Tailwinds: Beyond Price Speculation
Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD quietly passed four hundred seventy million dollars in market value during the spring, despite launching less than a year ago. Citi Global Markets argues that a Fed master account would permit real-time gross settlement for RLUSD, placing it in the same league as PayPal’s PYUSD and giving fintech integrators a non-bank alternative that still carries federal supervision. Analysts contend such access could expand RippleNet volumes by as much as forty percent over the next twelve months, translating into higher demand for XRP as a bridge asset.
Separately, Asia-based payments firm SBI Remit confirmed on 6 July that it will expand ODL corridors to four additional Southeast Asian markets in Q3. Each corridor requires pre-funded XRP liquidity pools. Though not a volume game-changer on its own, announcements like SBI’s compound the charter narrative, reinforcing XRP’s use case for near-instant, low-cost settlement.
Risks That Could Derail the Rally
No forecast is complete without acknowledging hazards. A failure by regulators to approve the bank charter would blunt enthusiasm quickly. Reuters cites unnamed OCC officials who caution that crypto-native charters still face a high bar, especially around consumer asset protections.
Macro forces can also upset the scenario. A stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price print would almost certainly raise Treasury yields, historically a headwind for high-beta crypto assets. In addition, the open-interest profile shows a significant cluster of leveraged longs between sixty-five and sixty-eight cents. If the price stalls below that band, liquidations could send XRP back toward the mid-fifties before bullish momentum returns.
Price Scenarios Through Mid-August
Base-case models at CoinMetrics assign a forty-five-per-cent probability that XRP pierces seventy-five cents by the third week of July, assuming the charter process moves to the public-comment stage without setbacks. Under that scenario, Fibonacci extensions yield an eighty-three-cent target into August.
A thirty-per-cent probability attaches to a range continuation between fifty-eight and sixty-eight cents, reflecting potential summer-liquidity doldrums or delayed charter commentary.
A twenty-five-per-cent downside case envisions a rejection at sixty-eight cents, dragging XRP back to the fifty-cent handle if broader crypto risk sentiment sours.
Bottom Line
Ripple’s pursuit of a U.S. national banking charter and the closure of its SEC battle have breathed new life into an asset that spent much of the past two years overshadowed by regulatory fog. While skeptics warn that charter approval is not guaranteed, the very act of applying has reframed XRP’s narrative from defensive litigation to proactive integration with the traditional financial system. Add in tight exchange supply, whale accumulation, and clear technical breakout signals, and the ingredients for a sustained push toward seventy-five cents appear solidly in place. Traders will want to see a daily close above sixty-eight cents to confirm momentum; investors eyeing a longer horizon will watch regulators, because the path beyond seventy-five begins in Washington.